Where Has the Excitement Gone? The Decline of the Goal Scoring

A key narrative of the EPL season so far is the decline of scoring in open play and the way clubs are finding goals increasingly from dead-ball situations instead.

Looking at goal sources to matchday 11 last season, we see a drop of 39 scored in open-play and 26 more from set-plays and penalties, leading to 13 less altogether.

If we look at overall statistics, efforts on goal sides are producing show an incredible 370 fewer in open-play than this time previously.

And despite the big increase in set-play finishes, there have actually been just two more attempts created from them outside of penalties, showing how effective teams are at devising strategies to convert from dead-ball chances.

Goal Averages Show an Interesting Narrative

301 total goals scored in 110 games so far calculates at nearly 2.75 goals per fixture, which if it continued for the entire campaign would be the lowest for five years, back in 2020-21 (2.69 average).

Yet merely under 200 goals coming in open play averages out 1.78 per game and is on course to be the smallest for 16 seasons, since 2009-10 (1.76 per game).

That campaign also marks the unique EPL season to see goals scored at a higher rate from non-penalty set-pieces than this campaign's frequency of 0.77 per game (0.79 average).

Which Sides Account for This Change?

When it comes to scoring from open-play, Wolves have experienced the most significant drop, scoring just four in 11 matches, 10 less than this point last season.

Apart from Wolverhampton, the Premier League's decline in goals from open play is largely a London thing, with half of the city's seven teams scoring a minimum of five less scores from open-play than the prior season.

Honestly, this is mainly because them netting numerous goals at the beginning of the previous campaign rather than them having difficulty to find the net in open play this season.

Conversely City have experienced the most significant jump, with all but one of the 23 they've scored this season originating in open play.

Dead-Ball Dominance

Looking at the promoted teams with the teams that went down they took the place of. Sunderland Sunderland have netted three extra scores in open-play than Southampton achieved in their first 11 games on their way to relegation the previous campaign.

Regarding scoring from set-pieces (excluding penalties), Arsenal and the Blues have experienced the largest rise, with both sides compensating for the five less scores that they've netted in open-play with the same number from dead-ball chances.

United have recorded two times more scores from set-plays as they did in the first 11 matches last season before the manager took over, while Sunderland once more are more successful at netting than the similar-colored team that went down.

Manchester City don't seem to have got the message about increasing scoring from set-plays, as they've scored three fewer than the previous campaign, similar to Nottingham Forest, although this could be because of the change in style they've attempted to adopt.

League-Wide Trends

Six clubs – the Gunners, the Blues, Fulham, Newcastle, Spurs and the Hammers – are this term's top trend-setters by recording fewer goals from open-play and more from set-plays, while Man City represent the only side to defy the pattern to date by performing the contrary.

It remains to be seen to watch if teams carry on to place such emphasis on set-pieces as matches continue or if they rediscover their general attacking flair and commence netting increased totals in open-play also.